CfD Round 3 has closed and the numbers landed off-script. Winners were awarded 315.8 MW of onshore wind capacity against a tendered 290 MW, taking allocations to 108% of the advertised volume. Competition was real, but softer than expected. Oversubscription for the tendered volume reached 133%, well below the 200% initially anticipated. Most players either pulled back at the last moment due to delays in securing bank guarantee letters or stayed out because price expectations were too low. Those who did participate often did so with very small capacities, keeping optionality rather than committing at scale.

Bidding strategy was selective by design. A meaningful share of participants bid only 40% to 60% of total project capacity, with the remainder positioned for PPAs at higher prices, typically EUR 70 to EUR 76/MWh, in search of better upside than the scheme was expected to deliver.

Round 3 is modest on volume, sharper on signal. CfD1 cleared 1,096 MW of wind plus 432 MW of solar and 21 companies have already signed contracts. CfD2’s wind allocation reached 1,263 MW, below the 2,000 MW target for that round. Against that backdrop, CfD3 pushes the market back to execution.

Average pricing moved meaningfully versus prior rounds. The weighted average strike price for CfD3 winners is EUR 67.66/MWh, meaning the Romanian state will pay on average EUR 67.66 for each MWh produced under CfD3. That is 7% lower than under CfD2 and 2.5% higher than under CfD1, on the same basis provided.

The winner set was concentrated. Three major players, Naxxar, OX2 and Zen, captured 89% of the tendered capacity, split 41% for Naxxar, 25% for Zen, and 23% for OX2. TDP Partners’ role was material. Projects advised by TDP Partners represent 25% of the awarded capacity, equivalent to approximately 79 MW.

Winners table:

Strike prices ranged from EUR 59.95/MWh to EUR 74.90/MWh. At the low end, Naxxar secured two tranches of 64.8 MW at EUR 59.95 and EUR 61.05/MWh, anchoring the round’s largest blocks at the most competitive prices. At the other end, the highest strike price was paired with the largest single awarded capacity, with Traian Energy SRL winning 78 MW at EUR 74.9/MWh, effectively pricing scale at a premium.

Timing is the constraint that will decide outcomes from here. All awarded projects carry 2028 commissioning deadlines, turning CfD3 into a delivery test as much as a pricing exercise. For investors, the question is whether projects can clear permitting, grid works and procurement on a timetable that is now explicit.

With Round 3 concluded, TDP Partners will continue to support clients through delivery, financing, refinancing and transaction execution, converting awarded capacity into commissioned assets.