In Romania’s recent CfD wind auction, TDP Partners’ clients secured 213 MW, representing 17% of the total awarded wind capacity (1,263 MW).

We guided our clients to strike prices between €75/MWh and €79.5/MWh, above the auction average of €72.8/MWh, ensuring value protection and strong bankability. Our philosophy is clear: not every win is worth having. Securing capacity at the cost of profitability is a short-term victory that can turn into a long-term liability, eroding returns, undermining financing, and putting the entire project at risk. This approach delivered:

• €6/MWh above the market average;
• €13.6/MWh above the lowest winning bid;
• A clear position among the top-performing developers in a market where three players (OX2, Renovatio, Rezolv) covered half of the total winners’ capacity.

SELECTED MARKET RESULTS

LOW TURNOUT IN THE WIND CFD ROUND EXPLAINED

The auction for 2,000 MW of wind closed with only 1,263 MW allocated. Even when factoring in non-eligible offers, total demand likely reached no more than 75% of the available capacity.

The limited interest can be linked to several factors:

• Probable exclusion of storage from CfD projects, removing balancing and peak-shaving options;
• Balancing costs of around 10% of energy prices, fully supported by beneficiaries;
• High bid and performance bonds (€20k/MW and €75k/MW) tying up cash for years;
• Unilateral exit clause, increasing financing risk compared to PPA-backed projects.

These structural conditions reduced the attractiveness of CfDs for some developers, particularly those with access to competitive PPAs or flexible market strategies.

In the PV auction, 1,488 MW were awarded to 6 winners at average prices between €39–45.2/MWh. Our forecast indicated that bids under €46/MWh had an 80%+ probability of success. The auction results, with six winners averaging €39–45.2/MWh, confirmed the accuracy of our proprietary market modelling and sector knowledge.

PV MARKET RESULTS

MARKET KEY TAKEAWAYS

Romania’s latest CfD auctions exposed a clear split between wind and photovoltaic. Wind ended with over one-third of its allocated capacity unclaimed, despite a 2,000 MW offering. Many winning bids were close to the strike price cap, suggesting upward cost pressure, delays in permitting, and supply chain constraints.

Photovoltaic, in contrast, was heavily oversubscribed at lower prices, reflecting stronger competition, mature technology and lower capital requirements. The message from the market is straightforward: under the current framework, wind is perceived as carrying higher risk and slower returns, while PV offers faster deployment but at tighter margins.

A CfD win is only valuable when the economics work. Securing capacity at unsustainable prices weakens returns, strains financing, and leaves projects exposed to long-term risks. The absence of storage integration in this round further reduced flexibility, removing the potential for market arbitrage or peak-revenue capture.

At TDP, our role is to ensure that wins are profitable, not just visible. We focus on:

• Securing capacity at bankable strike prices
• Protecting IRR under realistic market conditions
• Avoiding value dilution from aggressive underbidding

With new CAPEX grants and CfD rounds ahead, the advantage will belong to those who treat price as a strategic lever for long-term competitiveness, guided by market intelligence with a proven track record of accuracy.

Thank you to our clients for the trust you have placed in TDP Partners. These results are your results and proof that strategic rigor delivers long-term value.